Sequential Modeling of Parity Progression in Sub-Saharan Africa

Gebrenegus Ghilagaber, Stockholm University
Paraskevi Peristera, Stockholm University

A sequential procedure is proposed to model differentials in parity progression in three Sub-Saharan African countries - Eritrea, Ghana, and Kenya based on data from their Demographic and Health Surveys. Since the decison process on family size requires successful completion of the prior parity for passage into the subsequent one, a sequential decision model captures the decision process more accurately. Further, as reasons to have a first child may differ from those to have, say, a second child we allow the effects of covariates on the transition propensities to vary between transitions into different parities. Preliminary results show that the sequential model provides more insight than standard models with respect to correlates of parity progression ratios in particular and fertility decision process in general. We also found both similarities and differences in the effect of covariates on parity progression among the countries studied. Substantive explanations for the results will be addressed.