The Impact of Variation in International Migration on U.S. Population Projections

David M. Armstrong, U.S. Census Bureau

Projections of international migration are considered to be the least certain component in U.S. population projections. Alternative series provide a means of understanding the sensitivity of population projections to different assumptions about the future levels and composition of the international migration streams. This paper examines the impact of varying immigration and emigration assumptions on U.S. population projections. It also considers the effect of varying the demographic composition of the immigration projections on the demographic make-up of the projected population. These variations in migration are not confidence intervals, rather they will allow us to demonstrate how sensitive our population projections are to changes in international migration. The various population projections produced will be examined for change in the racial and ethnic composition of the population, the timing of the majority-minority crossover, and dependency ratios.