Weather Shocks and Out-Migration in Indonesia: Exploring Heterogeneous Effects

Brian C. Thiede, Louisiana State University

This paper examines potential sources of heterogeneity in individuals’ odds of migration within weather shock-affected contexts of Indonesia. It analyzes whether differences in wealth, livelihood, and migration networks help explain heterogeneity in migration responses to rainfall and temperature shocks. The analysis draws upon data from the first through fourth waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) and NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project. Analyses center upon a series of discrete time event history models. The modeling strategy accounts for potential heterogeneous effects, as well as community fixed effects and clustering. This study contributes to existing theories of migration and vulnerability, and demonstrates an approach for exploring potential causal mechanisms underlying environment-induced migration.