Bringing Zoning into the Population Forecast

Richard Lycan, Portland State University

Oregon land use law requires that population forecasts be developed for counties, cities, and areas within urban growth boundaries. Recently the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development contracted with the Population Research Center to work with counties and cities in the development of such forecasts. The forecasts employ a cohort-component model requiring assumptions about migration, fertility, and mortality rates. Migration rates are the most difficult to estimate. A query tool has been developed which imputes net migration rates based on zoning class areas inside or outside of urban growth boundaries. The tool is intended to assist the demographer in determining appropriate net migration rates for various types of current and projected zoning, not to produce actual forecasts. A goal is to facilitate communication between local planners and the demographer. The paper describes the development of the query database and shows examples of its application particularly for older populations.