Cost-Benefit Evaluation of the Seguro Popular Program 2004-2010

Alfonso Miranda, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE)

I present a cost-benefit evaluation of the SP program looking at the effect of the SP on pocket medical expenditure among households affiliated to SP. Data from ENIGH 2004-2010 is analyzed. Following Barros (2009), a triple difference-in-differences estimator is used to calculate the causal effect of changes in the coverage of the SP on pocket medical expenditure exploiting variation on the rollover of the program across the Mexican States. Reductions on pocket expenditure on households with small children and older adults are documented. In 2004 for each peso saved by households on pocket expenditure, the SP spent between 1.07 and 2.20 constant 2008 pesos. For 2010 the figure was between 2.84 and 5.68 pesos. The deterioration of the cost-benefit of the program as coverage approaches 1 is probably due to increments on the marginal cost of affiliation and the inclusion of higher income households that use private medical care anyway.