Do Conditional Cash Transfer Programs Affect Adolescent Fertility? Long Term Impacts of a Mexican Cash Transfer Program

Erika Arenas, University of California, Los Angeles
Susan Parker, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE)
Luis Rubalcava, Spectron Desarrollo S.C. and Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE)
Graciela M. Teruel, Universidad Iberoamericana

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs were first introduced in Brazil and Mexico more than a decade ago. CCT programs aim, in addition to alleviating current poverty, to reduce future poverty by increasing human capital accumulation of children and youth from poor families and thereby increasing their income when they become adults. While education and health impacts of CCTs have been extensively studied (see Parker and Todd 2014), surprisingly little is known about the effects of CCTs on adolescent fertility. This paper uses the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS) to estimate fertility impacts of the Mexican conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades. We focus on girls close to entering secondary school at the beginning of the program and follow them over the course of the panel until they are in their early 20s.