Assessing the Impact of Community Violence on Marriage and Fertility: The Case of Mexico

Mónica L. Caudillo, New York University (NYU)

Globally, homicide is one of the most widespread forms of social unrest. The demographic consequences of homicide gain relevance in light of its concentration among the young male disadvantaged population. But despite its epidemic character and its drastic economic and psychological impacts on affected communities, we know surprisingly little about how exposure to high homicide rates affect women's fertility and union formation. Using the case of Mexico, I use event history analysis to assess the effect of long and short-term exposure to local violence on timing of first marriage and first pregnancy.