Projecting the Demographic Impact of Anti-Poverty Policy Changes Using the California Poverty Measure

Sara Kimberlin, Stanford University
Marybeth J. Mattingly, University of New Hampshire and Stanford University
Sarah Bohn, Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)
Caroline Danielson, Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)
Christopher T. Wimer, Columbia University

This paper will use the California Poverty Measure (CPM) to model the impact of changes in anti-poverty policy on poverty rates and on the demographic profile of California's poor population. The CPM is a measure that mimics the Census' Supplemental Poverty Measure while incorporating additional refinements (e.g. accounting for under-reporting of safety net benefits) as well as modifications to address California's state-specific policy and demographic context. A strength of the CPM is that it allows for modeling of policy changes and, to some extent, behavioral implications. We will use two years of CPM data to examine several policy counterfactual scenarios, projecting the potential impact of a variety of possible anti-poverty policy changes (e.g. introducing a state EITC) or behavioral changes (e.g. full SNAP uptake among all eligible) on poverty rates and demographics. These results have broad implications for policy and demographic research both within and beyond California.