Estimating Incidence of New HIV Infections in Uganda from Routine PMTCT Program Data

Bryan Sayer, Social & Scientific Systems, Inc.

We estimate annual prevalence and incidence of HIV by district in Uganda using routine data from the Prevention of Mother To Child Transmission (PMTCT) program, using methods previously reported in Estimating Incidence of HIV with Synthetic Cohorts and Varying Mortality in Uganda. District level estimates are not exact, but provide a relative ranking that reflects the general demand for treatment services. Using routine program data is faster and cheaper than population based surveys. In addition, it provides coverage for small geographic areas that are generally not available in population based surveys.