Fertility Transition in Turkey: Who Is Most at Risk of Deciding against Child Arrival?

Aurélien Dasre, Université de Paris Ouest Nanterre la Défense and CRESPPA
Angela Greulich Luci, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Ceren Inan, Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV

In Turkey, female employment and education is still relatively low while fertility levels are high compared to other European countries. However, Turkey stands just at the edge of an important transition. Increasing female education and employment come along with important decreases in fertility. By mobilizing census and survey data (SILC), we find that fertility decreases are mainly caused by fewer transitions to third birth. Graduate women participating in the formal labour market are most at risk of deciding against child arrival in comparison to inactive or unemployed women. Policies enabling women to combine work and family life, which have been proven effective in other European countries, emerge as useful to avoid a further fertility decline below replacement level in Turkey.