Modeling Age-Specific Fertility Curves to Understand Demographic Transition

Athena Pantazis, University of Washington
Samuel J. Clark, University of Washington

Age-specific fertility rates capture the overall level of fertility and the age pattern of fertility. This study aims to understand trends in SSA fertility from 1950-2010 in the context of global fertility trends though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates, from the UN World Population Prospects. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility because changes in age-specific fertility are a substantial component of fertility transition. Six clusters are obtained from the analysis: two high, early transition clusters; two middle transition, medium fertility clusters; and two low fertility, late or post-transition clusters. A country’s demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters. SSA regimes are predominant in the high fertility, early transition clusters, though most regimes have transitioned out of the highest fertility cluster and those remaining have shown fertility decline.