Migrants vs. Stayers: Are Fertility Differences a Matter of Migrant Selection?

Katharina Wolf, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Most studies on migrant fertility take the perspective of the host society, comparing migrant fertility to that of the native population in the host country. In our study, we take a different approach and compare the behavior of migrants to their counterparts who remained in the country of origin. Data comes from the Ghana sample of the MAFE project (Migration from Africa to Europe) which contains fertility histories of Ghanaian “non-migrants” as well as Ghanaian migrants living in the UK or the Netherlands. First, we employ a Poisson model to study the long-term effects of migration on total fertility. Second, event-history analysis is used to examine the influence of migration on first and second birth timing. This strategy helps us understanding not only the long-term effects of migration on completed fertility, but also reveals a better insight into short-term disruptions and postponement effects of migration on fertility.