Evolving Interrelations in Demographic Processes and the Great Recession: Continuous Evolution or Seismic Shift?

Mark J. Lyons-Amos, Institute of Education

The Great Recession has had a dramatic effects on many transitions in the United Kingdom, primarily a depression in employment and delays in leaving full time education as young people extend educational enrolment in the face of labour market uncertainty. Demographic responses have also been observed, through depressed fertility behaviour at an aggregate level via depressed partnership formation and elevated union dissolution. That said, it is unclear whether the recession had no only affected the rate of transition, but also the association between them. This paper therefore models the evolving interrelationship between five major transitions- leaving full-time education, employment, independent housing, forming coresidential relationships and having a child. Data are from the UK-HLS, a nationally representative sample survey, to make cross cohort and pre-post-recession comparisons. Preliminary results indicate an increasing dichotomisation of career paths particularly in the post recession era: transitions reflect either an employment focussed or family focussed path.