Role of Family Size Preferences in Explaining Stalling Fertility Transition in Kenya

Andrew Mutuku, University of Nairobi

Abstract Rapid fertility decline experienced in Kenya in the late 1980s stalled in the late 1990s. This study examined factors influencing women’s propensity to transition from third to fourth births in Kenya. This was meant to assess the preparedness of the county to achieve a TFR of 2.6 births by 2030. Data was obtained from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys of 2003 and 2008/9. Logistic regression model was utilized for data analysis. The results showed that education level, region of residence, religion, ever use of contraception, wealth quintile, age at the start of the interval and desire for an additional child were significant determinants of these birth transitions. The main policy implication is the need to improve family planning services access across the country and increase the proportion of women with at least secondary level of education.