Women's Labor Potential in an Aging Taiwan: Population and Labor Force Projections by Education up to 2050

Yen-Hsin Alice Cheng, Academia Sinica
Elke Loichinger, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU)

This study uses the multi-state cohort component projection method and detailed vital statistics data to project the future Taiwanese population by age, sex, and education to 2050. This is the first attempt to perform education projections for Taiwan. These projections reveal how young, highly educated cohorts during the next decades will replace older cohorts who are significantly less educated. The results of the education-specific population projections will be used to estimate the future composition of the Taiwanese labor force. Women’s economic activity in most age groups is significantly lower than men’s and also much lower than women from other western developed nations, and it also varies much more by education. Incorporating education as an extra dimension in labor force projections allows us to make inferences about the quality of future labor supply in a rapidly aging Taiwan and the leverage of recruiting more women into the labor force to maximize productivity.