Spatiotemporal Analysis of Marriage and Marital Fertility in Japan: Using Geographically Weighted Regression 1980-2010

Kenji Kamata, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

This study investigates the spatial variations of the relationship between changes in marriage and marital fertility, and the relationships with covariates using geographically weighted regression models, each decade from 1980 to 2010. The analytical sample is 1,853 towns and villages based on 2010 administrative boundaries. The indexes of marriage and marital fertility are made by the standardized method. The dependent variables are the standardized marital population ratio (SMR) and the marital fertility ratio (MFR). As for the explanatory factors, we focus on female labor force participation. The result shows almost coefficients for covariates have statistically significant geographical variations. The coefficients by spatial areas are relatively stable at each period. The female labor force participation has a positive relationship with marital fertility in the urban areas.