The Relationship between Space, Time, Fertility, and Employment: A Fixed Effects Spatial Panel Approach

Alessandra Carioli, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and University of Groningen
Daniel Devolder, Center for Demographic Studies (Barcelona)
Joaquin Recaño Valverde, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Leo van Wissen, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and University of Groningen

Heterogeneity and time dependency are a challenging topic in demography. In this study, we aim to describe the spatial effect of socio-economic indicators over the evolution of fertility among 910 Spanish municipalities measured cross-sectionally at macro level in 1986, 1991, 2001 and 2011. We apply a fixed effects spatial error model with GMM estimation that extends the cross-sectional model of Kelejian and Prucha (2010). Preliminary analysis finds strong spatial autocorrelation for all the variables and years taken into account in the panel and show significant clusters substantially transforming over time. Indeed, during these four decades major transformations took place in the family formation process, generating significant changes in the effect of female participation into the labour force and employment as shown by (Adsera, 2004). Moreover, such evolution displays important heterogeneity across areas revealing underlying leaders and laggers in fertility behaviour changes.