A Spatial Econometrics Analysis of Three Decades of Fertility Changes in Spain

Alessandra Carioli, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and University of Groningen
Daniel Devolder, Center for Demographic Studies (Barcelona)
Joaquin Recaño Valverde, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Spanish fertility displays important geographical heterogeneity and recent migration flows add further spatial heterogeneity and substantially contribute in shaping Spanish fertility at local level. The objective of this paper is to investigate the variability present in fertility across different geographic areas in Spain between 1981 and 2011, shedding new light on the spatial transformations of tempo and quantum dynamics through three decades of major socio-economic transformations. Using data from Spanish municipalities, we define 910 territorial units, ensuring spatial contiguity. The fertility indicators selected encompass fertility by age, birth order, nationality of the mother and age at childbirth. The first part of the analysis addresses issues of contiguity, global and local measures of spatial autocorrelation as well as hot-spots analysis. In a second phase, we apply semi-variance analysis to assess the effect of distance on spatial autocorrelation testing how single regions and population density affect spatial autocorrelation.