The Tempo Effect on Recent Change in Rural-Urban Fertility in West Bengal, India

Lopamudra Paul, FHI 360

Urban West Bengal has been experiencing very low fertility for past few decades tough their rural counterpart is lagging behind by almost a decade. Currently urban fertility is below replacement level in the state and only improvement in education and transportation helped to spread the right behaviour. Cohort analysis from DHS surveys and also from primary survey clearly shows that there is pure tempo effect in change in fertility towards lowest low in the state. With change in value of children, increase use of modern contraceptives compared to traditional methods and higher aspiration on children among younger women shows the tempo effect more clearly. period parity progression ration, multivariate analysis shows the tempo effect after controlling for age factor and further content analysis on FGDs also second the view.